Only 2 and a half weeks to go - hopefully it'll be significantly better than last year.

Squads announced so far:

England (Palmer and Rees need injury cover, so probably Lipman or the chubbier Armitage and A. Lock to come in as well).

Forwards: Tim Payne (Wasps), Andrew Sheridan (Sale), Matt Stevens (Bath), Phil Vickery (Wasps), George Chuter (Leicester), Dylan Hartley (Northampton), Lee Mears (Bath), Steve Borthwick (Saracens), Nick Kennedy (London Irish), Tom Palmer (Wasps), Simon Shaw (Wasps), Tom Croft (Leicester), James Haskell (Wasps), Lewis Moody (Leicester), Tom Rees (Wasps), Nick Easter (Harlequins), Luke Narraway (Gloucester).

Backs: Delon Armitage (London Irish), Olly Morgan (Gloucester), Mathew Tait (Sale), Mark Cueto (Sale), Paul Sackey (Wasps), Ugo Monye (Harlequins), Jamie Noon (Newcastle), Mike Tindall (Gloucester), Riki Flutey (Wasps), Shane Geraghty (London Irish), Danny Cipriani (Wasps), Toby Flood (Leicester), Danny Care (Harlequins), Harry Ellis (Leicester), Ben Foden (Northampton).

France

No idea - not sure Lievremont has either.

Ireland

Announced later today I think.

Italy

Matias Aguero (Saracens), Andrea Bacchetti (Rovigo, uncapped), Tommaso Benvenuti (Benetton Treviso, uncapped), Mauro Bergamasco (Stade Francais), Mirco Bergamasco (Stade Francais), Marco Bortolami (Gloucester), Gonzalo Canale (Clermont Auvergne), Pablo Canavosio (Viadana), Martin Castrogiovanni (Leicester Tigers), Carlo Antonio Del Fava DEL (Ulster), Santiago Dellape' (Toulon), Simone Favaro (Rovigo, uncapped), Gonzalo Garcia (Calvisano), Leonardo Ghiraldini (Calvisano), Andrea Marcato (Benetton Treviso), Andrea Masi (Biarritz), Luke Mclean (Calvisano), Jean Francois Montauriol (Casinò di Venezia, uncapped), Carlos Nieto (Gloucester), Fabio Ongaro (Saracens), Sergio Parrise (Stade Francais), Gilberto Pavan (Overmach Cariparma, uncapped), Salvatore Perugini (Toulouse),Matteo Pratichetti (Calvisano), Tommaso Reato (Rovigo), Kaine Robertson (Viadana),Giulio Rubini (Overmach Cariparma, uncapped), Josh Sole (Viadana), Giulio Toniolatti (Almaviva UR Capitolina), Alessandro Zanni (Calvisano).

Scotland - Getting there I think, good pack potentially, still the worrying prospect of Parks getting the 10 shirt though.

Backs: Mike Blair (capt), Ben Cairns (both Edinburgh), Chris Cusiter (Perpignan), Simon Danielli (Ulster), Nick De Luca (Edinburgh), Thom Evans, Max Evans (both Glasgow Warriors), Phil Godman (Edinburgh), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Lamont (Northampton Saints), Rory Lawson (Gloucester), Graeme Morrison, Dan Parks (both Glasgow Warriors), Chris Paterson, Hugo Southwell and Simon Webster (all Edinburgh)

Forwards: John Barclay, Kelly Brown (both Glasgow Warriors), Geoff Cross (Edinburgh), Alasdair Dickinson (Gloucester), Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Scott Gray (Northampton Saints), Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors), Craig Hamilton, Jim Hamilton (both Edinburgh), Nathan Hines (Perpignan), Allister Hogg, Allan Jacobsen (both Edinburgh), Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors), Euan Murray (Northampton Saints), Alasdair Strokosch (Gloucester), Simon Taylor (Stade Francais), Jason White (Sale Sharks).

Wales - No Peel but otherwise showing a lot of continuity. Hard to look past Wales as the likely champions, although if either Williams gets crocked it would be a major blow.

Forwards: Gethin Jenkins, John Yapp, Adam Jones, Rhys Thomas, Matthew Rees, Huw Bennett, Ian Gough, Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris, Bradley Davies, Ryan Jones (capt), Jonathan Thomas, Dafydd Jones, Andy Powell, Martyn Williams, Robin Sowden-Taylor.

Backs: Mike Phillips, Gareth Cooper, Stephen Jones, James Hook, Gavin Henson, Andrew Bishop, Jamie Roberts, Tom Shanklin, Shane Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Mark Jones, Lee Byrne.

First Round Matches

7th February
England vs Italy
Ireland vs France

8th February
Scotland vs Wales

My friends are running about feverishly trying to finish a song and video entitled "There's Nobody as Black as Ronan O'Gara" and upload it to Youtube before Barack O'Bamas inauguration. It's a parody of this song which has been pretty big in Ireland in recent months.

I can't see Wales winning it - last season's must have been the shittest side to win the Grand Slam ever. Scotland are improving but not quite there yet (already defensively strong, they're getting close to being able to score a try, and if they can manage that occasionally alongside Paterson's astounding kicking they'll be a force to be reckoned with, otherwise they'll always struggle to get enough points on the board), Ireland are talented but inexplicably wobbly and England seem to be in the process of disintegrating entirely, which would leave France as the clear favourites if they were any good at the moment, which inconveniently they seem not to be.

England have three home ties and are at home to the French, whereas Wales only get two games in Cardiff, both tricky matches against the English and Irish. Scotland will have to battle for anything they get away to England and France, but will fancy themselves at home against Wales, Italy and Ireland. The French and Irish are both handicapped with only two home games, though, and Ireland's are against England and France, which is why I think France have the advantage.

However, the first weekend's games will reveal a lot. If Scotland can beat Wales at Murrayfield it could well do dramatic things to both sides' morale, and we owe the Welsh one after getting robbed at the Millennium Stadium last year by probably the worst TMO call ever. Similarly, if the French can pull off an opening-day win in Dublin, the fragile Irish could totally crumble and the French would then have two very winnable home games to build momentum before travelling to England. And if England do anything but thump the ever-improving Italians comfortably, they'll get crucified before two tricky away trips in a row that could rapidly turn their season into a disaster.

In a bold attempt to set a new world record of wrongness, then, I'm going to have a shot at predicting the final table before a ball has been kicked. I reserve the right to make a whole new guess on Monday February 9th.

1. France
2. Ireland
3. England (nicking 3rd at the death in the Calcutta Cup match)
4. Scotland
5. Wales (I think Peel is a massive loss for them, and karma will come back viciously - they could end up playing to avoid the wooden spoon on the last day)
6. Italy

Less ambitiously, opening-day score predictions:

England 27-16 Italy (a flattering scoreline as the Italians lead for much of the match but run out of steam in the last 10 minutes and England get two under the posts)

Scotland 22-14 Wales (Scotland grind out one try, converted by Paterson who also clinically notches five penalties as the Welsh struggle to break through the blue line)

Ireland 18-29 France (Ireland lead 12-3 at the interval, but are taken apart by classic French flair in the second half as the visitors run in four tries)

PS I take back all of the above if Scotland are still having to play in that fucking abortion of a kit. Look like a loser, play like a loser.

It's not a loss, they just haven't picked him on the grounds that Cooper is the incumbent and Phillips has had more game time this year.

Also bad luck on the kit, they aren't changing until next season as far as I know and will probably remain terrible, I really want to see that red sash like streak bugger off from the England kit.

That's still a loss...

Wales followed up the last Grand Slam with a wooden spoon, I think, so I don't hold out too many expectations. But none of the Six look strong enough to be counted as runaway favourites this year so who knows what might happen.

I think Stu's predictions are reasonable.

It's an 'easy' year for Scotland, with Wales, Ireland and Italy at home. That should see the Scots finishing mid-table.

However if Paterson gets injured we are in deep trouble.

Seems a reasonable enough set of predictions.

I suppose I'd better follow it this year, seeing as with RBS sponsoring the tournament, I'm helping pay for it now...

True, we need separate words for not having players by choice and not having players because they're banned/injured - which was more my point.

If you're fairly confident in your predictions then I'd be laying out some money to take advantage of the bookies who don't agree with you - you can get 21 on betfair for a Welsh wooden spoon. Oddly though the winner is reasonably close, Wales 3.3, France 4.2, England 4.6 and Ireland 5.

I can see the logic in your predictions, just have a feeling that events will pan out differently - you've also overstated the impact of playing the French at home, they don't seem to derive any advantage from it whatsoever given the fickle nature of their fans.

Going for a valiant second place in the wrongness world record, I'm going for:

Wales
France
England
Ireland
Scotland
Italy

More thinking of it from tour/AI/ML/GP/HC form.

Wales - have the least potential for improvement and are very vulnerable if they pick up injuries to the pair of Williams, who are their only genuinely world class players. However they've got the best coaches in the tournament and actually have a good idea of their first choice players, who also play like a team. No slam but pretty sure they'll have enough to grind out the wins - agree though that Murrayfield is crucial, if they lose that then all bets are off, momentum being everything for them.

France - christ knows really, Lievremont is a loon and I don't particularly like the balance of the squad he's picked but it's the French and there is class in the line up, so they will probably produce some sublime chaos without ever looking like they've met before. Haven't played well as an international team since the Scotland game last year, I'm tipping Dussatoir for man of the tournament though.

England - most potential for improvement, but battling the absence of quality in their experienced players and experience in their quality players alongside a horribly unforgiving media. Tight five is an issue, especially with Matthew Stevens being such a naughty boy and Moody busting his ankle is a big loss, but there are exciting breakaways and backs if they can pull it together. Senior team is a bit baffling, quality must be there, the Saxons haven't lost for two years, the U20s got a Grand Slam and to the final in the World Cup last year and the Sevens are going well but the final few yards seem to be beyond them. I'd almost accept a worse tournament than last year if it means the departure of Wells and Ford from the coaching staff.

Ireland - new coaching looked to be doing them some good in Aus/NZ but they didn't back it up at home in the Autumn. No idea what's going to turn up for the tournament, probably a curate's egg as ever - Munster are looking awesome in the Heineken but they've done that before and then be crap for the national side.

Scotland - looking the best they have for ages, mostly as Hadden seems to have become a smidge less conservative in his picks. Very disappointing summer tour, should have picked up two wins against essentially a 3rd or 4th string Argentina but a very respectable Autumn and Edinburgh and Glasgow are hitting form so could be the surprise package - then again similar things were said last year. This would probably be a bad place to mention that I would have Paterson in the 22 shirt though isn't it?

Italy - Mallett is an excellent coach and looks to be working very hard on finding a backline to go with the forward power but they backed up a good showing against what was really the Australia second XV with being the first team ever to lose to the Pacific Islands. Got to be favourites for the wooden spoon, but always capable of springing a surprise provided Parisse stays fit and shows top form, hasn't been looking that sharp for Stade in the Heineken games I've seen.

Oh God, we're doomed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_unio...ish/7862156.stm

I shouldn't worry too much, as this is normally about the point Wales' good/shite cycle takes a dip for the worse.

Fingers crossed! Equally, Scotland are overdue the 'good' part of their cycle.

Also Faddy dropped from the football training camp squad. Interesting times ahead for Scotland fans over the next couple of months.

606 Rugby Banter

Short debate on Scotland's prospects. It's interesting to note the difference in quality between the rugby 606 posts and the football ones.

Quick heads up - U20s Welsh games are being shown on BBC Wales - Scotland v Wales is first up tonight and is on the red button service for those outside the principality.

Kick off at 7 I think - annoyingly it's revealed that Andy Nichol is still working for the BBC though.

Can't get English commentary for some reason though.

I'm getting English commentary on BBC Wales on Sky.

Must be some oddness with freeview - I've got a choice of the incredibly annoying 'fanzone' or Welsh commentary.

Very average game, some terrible tackling and decision making from both sides at points, although the backrows are having an entertaining contest most of the time. Scottish 9's tendency to take half a dozen steps before delivering the pass is getting annoying now though.

Will still probably turn out to have been better than England v Italy tomorrow though - fucking Jamie fucking Noon for crying out loud, amongst the most average players to have caps in double figures.

There were a lot of errors, but good to see the young generation of Scots mimicking their elders, grinding out a 1-point win despite conceding two tries to nil...

Cheers for the heads-up, didn't know about that prog. Why is it called Scrum V, though? There aren't five in a scrum.

Well technically the minimum number of players in a scrum is five, but I assume the programme is referring to the attacking five metre scrum, from penalty/taken into goal.

Aha.

Also, Scrum-five is a legitimate call the referee will use a lot in the game for infractions in and around the try zone (ball held up, defending team retreating over the line and grounding the ball, etc.), the resulting scrum being held, of course, on the five-metre line.

And for completeness sake:

England U20s 17 Italy U20s 0
Ireland U20s 9 France U20s 6

Ireland 'A' vs England Saxons - cancelled due to a frozen pitch, not being rescheduled.

Also NZ Sevens finished up this morning, with England beating the hosts in the final - also Scotland picked up the Shield by beatng Niue apparently.

Can't find the first of the Women's 6N results yet though.

Good lord. If Bergamasco stays at scrum-half England are going to rack up 60 or 70 points here without having to be anything more than mediocre. And that won't do them any more good than it does Italy, because they'll suddenly have to shift up two gears when they meet anyone else.

England are dire, and are only lucky that Italy are worse.

Should be up by about twice that many points if they were playing halfway competently.

Haskell was going well until his standard being a twat for no reason, Ellis has been fucking shocking and Goode not much better, Sackey still doesn't look like he wants to be there and the rest of them are failing to make the right decisions or maintain any sort of discipline. Wales are going to tear them a new one next week.

If we don't see Hartley, Croft, Tait, Geraghty and Foden some time soon I'm going off to research my ancestry and choose a new nationality.

Tell you what, though, I'm still totally gay for Brian Moore. When he started humming that circus theme over a montage of Bergamasco's abysmal danger-to-low-flying-aircraft passes I fairly LOLed, and I've only had one beer.

It's shocking that England are only 16 points ahead at this stage, and should be only 13. (I'm not convinced by the first try either - that looked more like sideways pressure to me.) Italy have looked worse than they did in their first Six Nations, but England have given away 10 penalties and will play the first seven minutes or so of the first half with 14 men for an insanely needless trip. Discipline like that against any of the other four sides and they'll get slaughtered.

Man alive. Scotland-England last year was a terrible game of rugby, but that was an atrocity exhibition today. It's hard to pick out which aspect of it was worst - possibly Italy's lineout - but there was no part of that game that wouldn't have embarrassed two schoolboy teams. I think Italy will come out of it slightly happier - they've learned never, ever, ever to play Bergamasco at scrum-half again, and they were a far better side in the second half without ever getting above the level of rubbish. England were woeful, and if the Italians had been even 20% less suicidal it could have been a close-run thing.

I am normally - although that MoM decision was ludicrous. Two opportunist tries don't make up for not doing any of the basics of 9 play correctly and Foden was no better.

Not as bad as Murrayfield last year but damned close.

Pack wasn't great but no obvious players to bring in, apart from an actual lock on the bench and no Worsley at 7 ever. Backs though, Hodgson for Ellis, Tait for Noon and JSD for Sackey at a minimum.

Well, to be fair he had to pick someone as MOTM...

He could have had Bergamasco as MoM for England or more realistically Kennedy who did have a really solid game, took all his own ball and did a good disrupting job on Italy's throws.

Heavens to mercy, is this even the same sport?

No, it's a game where the flankers and locks know what they're doing.

Horribly girly tackling from the French there though, thought they'd be having the better of it in general to that point.

This is a magnificent game. Two superb tries, absolutely dizzying speed of recycling and passing from the French, and that last minute summed the whole thing up - great pressure from Ireland, a bad French fumble leaves them going backwards deep inside their own 22, but instead of a panicky kick to nowhere, the French just calmly run it back 60 metres and end up with a deserved three points...

So far I'm feeling very good about my picks for top two.

Good game, although there are major flaws in both teams, hard to call before seeing what form the other Celts are in tomorrow.

However, Ireland getting a way with a lot of cynical play at the breakdown, tacklers lying on the wrong side with no effort to roll away - bring back rucking etc.

I thought that was tremendous entertainment. Both sides, but especially the French, looked like they'd been told their pay was getting docked every time they kicked the ball. It never let up for a moment, unforced errors were incredibly few for a game this fast-paced, and every try was a joy. Steel with a bit of flair finally triumphed over flair with a bit of steel, but both of these sides should crush England and Italy like bugs. Can't wait for tomorrow to complete the set.

Well, I eventually had to switch off commentary there, because I had no fucking idea what game everyone else was watching. Wales were rubbish, and there for the beating had Scotland not made some awful basic errors. The match hinged on that scrum at the end of the first half, but Wales barely made a dent in Scotland's defence except when we gifted them it. Basically, you know anything Jeremy Guscott says is total bollocks, and he practically came in his pants over the Welsh, so they must have been crap.

Losing Taylor and Cross early on was a bad blow, but Paterson did excellently when he came on and surely has to start next week, either instead of or as well as Southwell. If we can frustrate the French for the first 20 minutes, everything's back in the pot. If they get off to a good start we're looking at wooden spoon time.

On that performance I wouldn't even put money on Wales beating England next weekend if it was at Twickenham, but in Cardiff they should thump them. Ireland ought to trample the Italians, so France-Scotland will do a lot to dictate the shape of the championship.

Steel with a little flair? I saw one Irishman spin and pirouette 3 times in succession during one play. It seemed a bit surreal to see that from the Irish team.

It was the sort of game that even Adam Jones would have been pirouetting a bit in. I don't think they could help it.

Man alive. The sheer consistency of Scotland's fucking-over by match officials in this tournament in recent years is getting beyond a joke. Maybe they just got overwhelmed by the sheer number of fouls committed during the French try or something.

:(

...and similarly, I'm really starting to get fed up of watching referees bust a gut to hand games to Wales for the last two or three seasons. That's an absolutely shocking first half, with two terrible decisions - so terrible that even Jonathan Davies acknowledged they were wrong - making a 14-point difference to the game inside five minutes. Shanklin shouldn't have been on the pitch either to slow up the French attack that led to the wrongly-disallowed try, or to make the break that led to the Welsh one. Tchah.